In an interesting development Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat Chrysler, admits EV revolution would crush automakers:-
Sergio Marchionne Admits EV Revolution Would Crush Automakers | CleanTechnica
Jack Shahan
Is making his living promoting electric motive power. He is very eloquent and a big part of his following also depends on his views coming to pass. Unfortunately much of what he expounds is more wishing than supportable fact.
IMHO the future in larger countries where the average travel distance is more than a few miles is the “Plug in Hybrid”.
The reason being. Petro fuel is cheap and abundant and looks to stay that way. The present electrical infrastructure cannot support massive amounts of straight EV’s without extreme investment in equipment, distribution, and even the owners have to invest in their own local installation.
3 huge factors that will cause significant retardation in the process is the availability to transfer energy quickly. You can fuel 350+ miles at a petrol pump in 5 minutes. You would need electrical cables as big as your wrist to do it electrically and huge transformers to supply multiple outlets… 2nd the road tax people will catch up with EV owners and ultimately get their fair share. The 3rd is the worn out battery issue that will hit the 3rd or 4th EV owner.
As far as the ICE dying and the current technology becoming obsolete the Plug IN Hybrids Have some of the most sophisticated engines available today. The transmission guy’s might take a hit though.
Are we going to see a greater percentage of EV activity in the future? SURE
Are straight EV’s going to become the mainstream vehicle in the near future? Not in the lifetime of anyone alive on earth today.
The Realist has Spoken.
What say you?
Rodney
I believe EVs will continue to make significant strides in certain automotive markets but I also don’t see fossil fuel vehicles going away anytime soon. However, gasoline car manufacturers will probably be finding they are having a more competitive battle with EVs and and with other gasoline cars for those markets. And these strides will result in new companies building cars. For example, we are already seeing high tech companies such as Apple and Google looking to join in.
Fiat may find they are in a worse situation than many other auto companies in that they don’t have a strong presence in the auto markets that will continue to be dominated by gas/diesel vehicles. Fiat sells a bulk of their cars for in and around town use where EVs will probably continue to gain market share. In fact, as EV technology improves (and it will) EVs will probably have a clear competitive advantage in the near future. (After all, it wasn’t that long ago many of us laughed at the idea of replacing our computers with laptops and tablets, or the notion of eliminating our landline because we have a cell phone.) Technology advances has a way of changing our perspective.
As for cheap petrol, I see this as a short lived situation. And, even with oil subsidies and “cheap oil” for however long it may last, EVs today are less costly to drive. As the initial cost of EVs come down (and they will), more will be willing to consider at least one vehicle in their driveway to be an EV.
RWD